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Read more about the work we do and our interests across behavioural science, design and data science.

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New Year, Same Old Predictions New Year, Same Old Predictions

At the beginning of a New Year, financial journalists churn out articles about how the markets are likely to perform over the next 12 months. Their sources are often the forecasts published by industry analysts. According to one report published in December 2023, for example, analysts have on average predicted that the value of the...

Jan 3 2024 • 3 min read

Will England Get Knocked Out Of The World Cup On Penalties? Will England Get Knocked Out Of The World Cup On Penalties?

Imagine that the England men’s football team reaches the quarter finals of the World Cup in Qatar. Which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely: A) England get knocked out; B) England get knocked out on penalties; or C) England take a 1-0 lead, with Harry Kane scoring first, but get knocked...

Nov 28 2022 • 3 min read

False Positives and False Certainties of Covid-19 Test Results False Positives and False Certainties of Covid-19 Test Results

Imagine that you have recently been asked to take a Covid-19 test – maybe you are a resident of Lambeth, a school pupil, or about to travel abroad. You receive a message with your results, which reads as follows: ‘Your recent coronavirus test has come back positive’. Take a moment to consider how you would...

Apr 30 2021 • 3 min read